Growing old in China in socioeconomic and epidemiological context: systematic review of social care policy for older people.

BACKGROUND: From 2020 to 2050, China's population aged ≥65 years old is estimated to more than double from 172 million (12·0%) to 366 million (26·0%). Some 10 million have Alzheimer's disease and related dementias, to approach 40 million by 2050. Critically, the population is ageing fast while China is still a middle-income country. METHODS: Using official and population-level statistics, we summarise China's demographic and epidemiological trends relevant to ageing and health from 1970 to present, before examining key determinants of China's improving population health in a socioecological framework. We then explore how China is responding to the care needs of its older population by carrying out a systematic review to answer the question: 'what are the key policy challenges to China achieving an equitable nationwide long-term care system for older people?'. Databases were screened for records published between 1st June 2020 and 1st June 2022 in Mandarin Chinese or English, reflecting our focus on evidence published since introduction of China's second long-term care insurance pilot phase in 2020. RESULTS: Rapid economic development and improved access to education has led to widescale internal migration. Changing fertility policies and household structures also pose considerable challenges to the traditional family care model. To deal with increasing need, China has piloted 49 alternative long-term care insurance systems. Our findings from 42 studies (n = 16 in Mandarin) highlight significant challenges in the provision of quality and quantity of care which suits the preference of users, varying eligibility for long-term care insurance and an inequitable distribution of cost burden. Key recommendations include increasing salaries to attract and retain staff, introduction of mandatory financial contributions from employees and a unified standard of disability with regular assessment. Strengthening support for family caregivers and improving smart old age care capacity can also support preferences to age at home. CONCLUSIONS: China has yet to establish a sustainable funding mechanism, standardised eligibility criteria and a high-quality service delivery system. Its long-term care insurance pilot studies provide useful lessons for other middle-income countries facing similar challenges in terms of meeting the long-term care needs of their rapidly growing older populations.

Clustering of adverse health and educational outcomes in adolescence following early childhood disadvantage: population-based retrospective UK cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Disadvantage in early childhood (ages 0-5 years) is associated with worse health and educational outcomes in adolescence. Evidence on the clustering of these adverse outcomes by household income is scarce in the generation of adolescents born since the turn of the millennium. We aimed to describe the association between household income in early childhood and physical health, psychological distress, smoking behaviour, obesity, and educational outcomes at age 17 years, including the patterning and clustering of these five outcomes by income quintiles. METHODS: In this population-based, retrospective cohort study, we used data from the Millennium Cohort Study in which individuals born in the UK between Sept 1, 2000, and Jan 1, 2002, were followed up. We collected data on five adverse health and social outcomes in adolescents aged 17 years known to limit life chances: psychological distress, self-assessed ill health, smoking, obesity, and poor educational achievement. We compared how single and multiple outcomes were distributed across early childhood quintile groups of income, as an indicator of disadvantage, and modelled the potential effect of three income-shifting scenarios in early childhood for reducing adverse outcomes in adolescence. FINDINGS: We included 15 245 adolescents aged 17 years, 7788 (51·1%) of whom were male and 7457 (48·9%) of whom were female. Adolescents in the lowest income quintile group in childhood were 12·7 (95% CI 6·4-25·1) times more likely than those in the highest quintile group to have four or five adverse adolescent outcomes, with poor educational achievement (risk ratio [RR] 4·6, 95% CI 4·2-5·0) and smoking (3·6, 3·0-4·2), showing the largest single risk ratios. Shifting up to the second lowest, middle, and highest income groups would reduce multiple adolescent adversities by 4·9% (95% CI -23·8 to 33·6), 32·3% (-2·7 to 67·3), and 83·9% (47·2 to 120·7), respectively. Adjusting for parental education and single parent status moderately attenuated these estimates. INTERPRETATION: Early childhood disadvantage is more strongly correlated with multiple adolescent adversities than any of the five single adverse outcomes. However, shifting children from the lowest income quintile group to the next lowest group is ineffective. Tackling multiple adolescent adversities requires managing early childhood disadvantage across the social gradient, with income redistribution as a central element of coordinated cross-sectoral action. FUNDING: UK Prevention Research Partnership.

Dynamic Longitudinal Associations Between Social Support and Cognitive Function: A Prospective Investigation of the Directionality of Associations.

Objective: To investigate the reciprocity of social support and cognitive function in late life. Method: Analyses were based on three parallel repeat measures of social support and cognition from the Whitehall II cohort, providing 10-year follow-up of 6,863 participants (mean age 55.8 years, SD 6.0 at baseline). Alternative hypotheses were evaluated via four bivariate dual change score models: Full coupling model estimated mutual influences of social support and cognition on subsequent changes in each other; social causation model assumed a unidirectional influence from social support onto changes in cognition, while the opposite assumption was tested by health selection model; last, no coupling model suggested independent growth of these two sets of variables. Results: A better cognition at the preceding stage was related to less positive changes in confiding support and less negative changes in practical support. In contrast, influences from social support on subsequent changes in cognition were not detected. Discussion: This empirical study provides some evidence for the health selection mechanism, such that cognition modified changes in social support. The hypothesized neuroprotective effect of social support was not detectable.

Physical Activity and Improvement of Glycemia in Prediabetes by Different Diagnostic Criteria.

Context: The effects of physical activity (PA) on improvement of glycemia may differ between prediabetic individuals defined by oral glucose tolerance test vs glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). Objective: We studied the association between PA and improvement of glycemia in individuals with prediabetes defined by glucose vs HbA1c criteria. Design, Setting, and Participants: From the Whitehall II study, 957 participants with prediabetes defined by isolated impaired fasting glucose (i-IFG), isolated impaired glucose tolerance (i-IGT), or both and 457 with prediabetes defined by HbA1c were included. Main Outcome Measures: The associations of PA with concomitant changes in glucose-related outcomes during 5 years of follow-up were analyzed. A recursive partitioning analysis was performed to study heterogeneity in the association between baseline PA and the probability of reversion to normoglycemia. Results: After 5 years of follow-up, 405 (42%) individuals with glucose-defined prediabetes reverted to normal glucose tolerance (NGT). A 5-year increase in moderate-to-vigorous-intensity PA was associated with improvements in insulin sensitivity and ß-cell function, but PA was not generally associated with reversion to NGT. Only among women ≥50 years with i-IFG or i-IGT, higher amounts of PA were associated with higher probability of reversion to NGT. In HbA1c-defined prediabetes, only 20 individuals (4.4%) reverted to normoglycemia, and PA was not associated with improvement in glycemic markers. Conclusions: PA may be particularly important for reversion to normoglycemia among older women with i-IFG or i-IGT. Individuals with prediabetes identified by HbA1c have a low probability of reversion to normoglycemia, and their changes in glycemia are not related to PA.

Social factors and cardiovascular morbidity.

Recent progress in population health at aggregate level, measured by life expectancy, has been accompanied by lack of progress in reducing the difference in health prospects between groups defined by social status. Cardiovascular disease is an important contributor to this undesirable situation. The stepwise gradient of higher risk with lower status is accounted for partly by social gradients in health behaviors. The psychosocial hypothesis provides a stronger explanation, based on social patterning of living and working environments and psychological assets that individuals develop during childhood. Three decades of research based on Whitehall II and other cohort studies provide evidence for psychosocial pathways leading to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Job stress is a useful paradigm because exposure is long term and depends on occupational status. Studies of social-biological translation implicate autonomic and neuroendocrine function among the biological systems that mediate between chronic adverse psychosocial exposures and increased cardiometabolic risk and cardiovascular disease incidence.

Combined impact of smoking and heavy alcohol use on cognitive decline in early old age: Whitehall II prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Identifying modifiable risk factors for cognitive decline may inform prevention of dementia. AIMS: To examine the combined impact of cigarette smoking and heavy alcohol consumption on cognitive decline from midlife. METHOD: Prospective cohort study (Whitehall II cohort) with three clinical examinations in 1997/99, 2002/04 and 2007/09. Participants were 6473 adults (72% men), mean age 55.76 years (s.d. = 6.02) in 1997/99. Four cognitive tests, assessed three times over 10 years, combined into a global z-score (mean 0, s.d. = 1). RESULTS: Age-related decline in the global cognitive score was faster in individuals who were smoking heavy drinkers than in non-smoking moderate alcohol drinkers (reference group). The interaction term (P = 0.04) suggested that the combined effects of smoking and alcohol consumption were greater than their individual effects. Adjusting for age, gender, education and chronic diseases, 10-year decline in global cognition was -0.42 z-scores (95% CI -0.45 to -0.39) for the reference group. In individuals who were heavy alcohol drinkers who also smoked the decline was -0.57 z-scores (95% CI -0.67 to -0.48); 36% faster than the reference group. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals who were smokers who drank alcohol heavily had a 36% faster cognitive decline, equivalent to an age-effect of 2 extra years over 10-year follow-up, compared with individuals who were non-smoking moderate drinkers.

Predictors of diabetes in older people in urban China.

BACKGROUND: China has the largest number of people with diabetes in the world. Over the last 30 years China has experienced rapid economic growth and a growing income gap between rich and poor. The population is ageing, however diabetes in older people has not been well studied to date. In this study we determined incidence and predictors of diabetes in older Chinese people. METHODS: During 2001, using a standard interview method, we examined 1,317 adults aged ≥65 years who did not have diabetes in the city of Hefei, and characterized baseline risk factors. Over 7.5 years of follow up, we documented incident diabetes using self-reported doctor diagnosis and the cause of death in the whole cohort, and HbA(1C) ≥48 mmol/mol in a nested case-control sample. A multivariate Cox regression model was employed to investigate risk of diabetes in relation to baseline risk factors. RESULTS: During follow up, 119 persons had newly diagnosed diabetes. World age-standardised incidence of diabetes was 24.5 (95% CI 19.5-29.5) per 1,000 person-years. Risk of diabetes was significantly and positively associated with income, waist circumference and body mass index, smoking and uncontrolled hypertension, but negatively associated with having a hobby of walking and frequency of visiting children/other relatives and contacting neighbours/friends. Higher income was significantly associated with increased diabetes risk regardless of cardiovascular and psychosocial risk factors. Compared to those with middle income and no psychosocial risk factors, the hazard ratio for incident diabetes among participants with high income and psychosocial risk was 2.13 (95% CI 1.02-4.45). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing incidence of diabetes in relation to high income has become an important public health issue in China. Maintaining social networks and gentle physical activities and reducing psychosocial factors may be integrated into current multi-faceted preventive strategies for curbing the epidemic of diabetes in the older population.